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LOCANTRO'S LIFE: Subscriber update and some market comments.
Dear Subscriber Lethargy is now turning to fear and when I update the TFIF Speculative market indicator it will be doing the Nutbush to the left. I have pretty much seen and dealt with it all, however I didn’t get to experience the Australian market rising at a rate of 63%pa leading up to the 1987 crash. During this time I was more concerned with school, surfing, and making sure I had enough Benzac. I don’t like seeing stocks fall below my entry prices but when investors turn on companies and each other there isn’t much you can do about it. Saying you can sell out and buy back cheaper is one of the biggest copout excuses I have ever heard. One of the downsides of owning stocks that could go 5, 10 to 50x higher is that they are normally illiquid at the bottom and you should be looking to buy and not to sell. I went back through my back catalogue and still believe this market is April 2005 all over again. I have seen similar buying opportunities in early 2009, 2002/2003 and during 1997 and the Asian crisis. Despite the negative press and end of the world scenarios back then the quality and well managed companies always came through it and many eventually became overvalued. I have seen Canadian figures suggesting that 97% of speculators ultimately fail and when the culture becomes similar to the good old days at the track or TAB I can understand why. It is all about addictions to the internet, to being told you are beautiful and talented, and to those floating hearts on poker machines that suck the blue rinse brigade out of their paltry pensions. Daytrading is another addiction and when there is no momentum rallies will fail and so will the traders trying to sell to greater fools. Many of our companies have been getting on with planning drilling campaigns and working towards asset sales/JV’s and they will continue to do so regardless of the anxious mess the investing public are getting themselves into. The best thing they can do is get on with business and not be pressured into roadshows or announcements to appease those looking for an exit. You will be surprised at how quickly the markets mood can change ( you only have to look at your own personal experiences) and the later part of 2011 and early 2012 went well against many analysts calls. Everybody knows Europe is a mess, the US recovery is sluggish and China is slowing but the market crashes of 1929 and 1987 occured after some ridiculous rallies based on the belief
that shares and PE ratios were entering a new “era”. When Japan finally cracked the PE on the Nikkei was 90x and airline stocks were trading between 400x-1200x with even teztile companies attracting 100x earnings. What we are seeing now is more of a panic, and when the market is weak you are going to be spammed into oblivion by newsletter writers all looking to call a major correction to bolster sales. I see some hope of an “Australian bubble” when we have a change of Government. If it can happen to Ireland, Mexico, Sweden and Iceland why can’t it come to Australia? New Zealand is also a likely target but it would be like sucking an ocean through a straw when their entire stock market consists of 153 companies. So what is coming up for Locantro’s Life?
• I am giving away $1,000 on Friday morning to a free trialist who converted to being a fully paid subscriber. If you joined me after February 10 2012 you currently have a 1 in 34 chance of winning $1,000. For those who are still on the free trial you can get your forms in by COB Thursday 17th May 2012 and have a chance to win. If you think this is a cheap marketing ploy there isn’t much I can do about it, but I think the product and price is right (apparently the new version is rubbish) so it is your money and your call.
• On Saturday morning I am off on a 3 week holiday to Argentina. I am spending 3 days looking at large Andean/Porphyry systems and will be soaking up as much geology and Malbecs as possible.
• I am then at the Gold Coast Resources showcase from June 13/14 2012. This is a free event and one of the best conferences held in Australia. I am appearing on the closing panel where I will have 5 minutes to push my own barrel and then will be exposed to an open mic session which should be an absolute joy with the market this way. I look forward to meeting some of you at the event, and my favourite tap beer is Asahi. The 2012 program is yet to be posted but worth checking the vertical events website at www.verticalevents.com.au
• TFIF will be released on Friday as normal. I will then be phoning or emailing the lucky convert who will have their prize put into their bank account.
• Speculative Portfolio Construction is likely to be the longest article I haver ever written. I am currently planning the intro and content but it could still be a couple/few weeks away. It will deal with not only stock selection but also provide some hints on how to handle a normal market and then hopefully one that overshoots to the upside.
• Locantro’s Life will return to normal service on June 18 2012.
Regards Tony Locantro Managing Director
Authorised Representative of AustAsia Financial Planning Pty Ltd ACN 080 213 378 | AFSL 229454 412-414 Newcastle Street, West Perth WA 6005 | PO Box 332, Leederville WA 6903
PLEASE NOTE: This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without prior approval. I have personal interests in the majority of the companies covered in this report (both direct and indirect) DISCLAIMER: Locantro’s Life is a publication issued by Gold Australia Pty Ltd (ACN 131 793 416) who is an authorised representative of AustAsia Financial Planning Pty Ltd AFSL 229 454. The information contained in Locantro’s Life is general advice only and no consideration has been taken as to the circumstances of each readers of Locantro’s Life. This document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client’s investment objectives, financial situation or needs. An investment adviser should be consulted before any investment decision is made. While this document is based on information from sources, which are considered reliable, Gold Australia Pty Ltd and AustAsia Financial Planning Pty Ltd, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate. Nor does Gold Australia Pty Ltd or AustAsia Financial Planning Pty Ltd accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect any of the information contained in this document. Disclosure of Interest: Gold Australia Pty Ltd and AustAsia Financial Planning Pty Ltd and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.
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