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Ranbaxy event update_111013.doc

Ranbaxy Labs
Ohm clearance in line; Hanmi launches Nexium equivalent
Ranbaxy's Ohm Labs facility has received an Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) from the US-FDA. This establishes Previous Reco
clearance of the previously unresolved 483 at this facility n All other US-FDA facilities such as Paonta Sahib, Dewas and Target Price
Mohali are still under import alert and consent decree n The possibilities of pending FTFs like Diovan, Valcyte and Nexium getting monetized remains alive but is contingent on the timely approvals of site transfers from the US-FDA n We maintain our TP of Rs308 (base business at 18x CY14E EPS and Rs55 for FTFs NPV) is based on an assumption that Price Performance
Ranbaxy would be able to monetize all key FTFs in CY14E. Ohm Labs clearance inline with base case hypothesis
Ranbaxy's Ohm facility has received an Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) for its Dec’12 inspections. This establishes clearance of the previously unresolved ‘Form 483’ at this facility. An EIR indicates satisfactory resolution of issues related to good Relative price chart
manufacturing practices (GMP) raised by US-FDA. We see this as a breather for an otherwise troubled US market operations for Ranbaxy as Ohm Labs is the only facilty, which is allowed to continue supplies in US market. All other US-FDA facilities viz Paonta Sahib, Dewas and Mohali are still under import alert and consent decree. FTFs likely to go through; built into our estimates
The possibilities of pending FTFs like Diovan, Valcyte and Nexium getting monetized remains alive but is contingent on the timely approvals of site transfers from the US- FDA. Although we expect FTFs to be monetized we would like to highlight that with Ohm Labs being the only US FDA approved facility and it being run at full capacity today, Stock Details
incremental launches from this facility might lead to slowdown / decline in base business for the company. We would also like to highlight that a clearance of this facility is in line with our expectations and is henced priced into our Target price. However, it being a sentimental boost to the stock we advise long-term investors to use this as an exit Hanmi launches Nexium’s modified salt Esomeprazole Strontium; Risk to
In another development relevant to Ranbaxy, Hanmi's Pharma’s injunction on Nexium equivalent launch has been uplifted by the court. Hanmi has done an “At Risk” launch of the drug in the US market in the month of September. Although not a direct substitution for Nexium, we believe it could lead to some declines in the sales of Nexium before Shareholding Pattern (%)
Ranbaxy’s launch of the generic. Hanmi expects the drug to generate sales of ~$15mn Sep'13 Jun'13 Mar'13
for them in CY13. We believe Hanmi’s drug might be able to take upto 10% of Nexium share in the market. Hanmi is marketing the product under the brand of "Esomeprazole strontium delayed release capsule" with a local partner, Amneal Pharmaceuticals. Our Take: We reiterate that our Target Price of Rs308 is based on an assumption that
Ranbaxy would be able to monetize all key FTFs in CY14E. FTF opportunities NPV comes to Rs. 55 a share. We value base business at 18x CY14E EPS of Rs14. Financial Snapshot (Consolidated)
Ashish Rathi
Sales (Core)
(Rs) % chg
Krishnanath Munde
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Y/E Dec (Rsmn)
Y/E Dec (Rsmn)
Net Sales
112,895 160,048
Expenditure
102,271 118,789
Net worth
Minority Interest
Loan Funds
EBITDA margin (%)
14.4
14.5
9.4
25.8
Total Liabilities
88,475 103,747
99,649 123,043
EBIT margin (%)
10.6
11.9
6.6
23.7
Net block
Other Assets
Current Assets
105,166 110,936
Adjusted PAT
Net Margin (%)
10.4
10.5
5.1
18.5
Current liabilities
Adj. PAT After JVs/Ass/MI
Reported PAT
Net current assets
PAT after MI
Total Assets
88,475 103,747
99,649 123,043
Cash Flow
Key Ratios
Y/E Dec (Rsmn)
PBT (Ex-Other income)
Profitability (%)
Operating Cashflow
Per Share Data (Rs)
Free Cash Flow
Investing Cashflow
Valuations (x)
Financing Cashflow
Gearing Ratio (x)
Net chg in cash
Closing cash position
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