Astro

Sector : CONSUMER
Bloomberg : CNI MK
TA SECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD
(Formerly known as Botly Securities Sdn Bhd) CNI Holdings Berhad
Caffeine Attraction
RM1.04 (+15.6%)
Fair Value
CNI Holdings Berhad is an integrated multilevel marketing company
which is famous for its CNI Café, CNI Tongkat Ali Ginseng Coffee, CNI
Lyophilised Royal Jelly, CNI Life Enzyme and Nutrimoist. The Group
is also an Original Brand Manufacturer (OBM) of its own range of
products marketed under the "CNI" brand name. For FY04, the Group
SHARE INFO
garnered an estimated market share of 5%, emerging as one of the
dominant direct selling companies in Malaysia. Going forward, CNI
will further penetrate the fast-growing Bumiputra community,
especially the rural area in Malaysia. Using DDM model, we derived a
fair value of RM1.04, which is equivalent to a PER of 12.9x. This
represents a 15.6% upside potential over the issue price of RM0.90.
Background
CNI Holdings Berhad ("CNI") commenced its business on 3rd May 1989 distributing traditional medicated wine imported from China, namely Tang Long wine (discontinued the distribution in 2002). As its business grew, the Group imported Royal Jelly from China, another health-related product that is popularly known today as CNI Lyophilised Royal Jelly. To further expand the Group's business, CNI has started to manufacture its own food andbeverage products, enabling the Group to promote efficiency and reduce RATIO & ANALYSIS
dependency on external sources. Today, the Group has grown to become anestablished multilevel marketing company with 70 distribution centres servicing more than 300,000 distributors, 133 sales points and professional skin care centres in Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei.
Caffeine Emerges as Best Sellers
The Group's range of products can be categorised into 5 distinct product
lines, namely personal care and cosmetics products, nutritional and health
N E W L I S T I N G
UTILISATION OF IPO PROCEEDS
products, household and auto care products, food and beverages, and other Total gross proceeds arising from the Offer for miscellaneous products. Within these product lines, CNI food and beverage Sale will accrue entirely to the Offerors products generate the highest turnover (46% of total turnover) to the Group.
For FY04, its coffee based beverages, particularly CNI Café and CNI TongkatAli Ginseng Coffee, were the best selling products, contributing approximately35.86% of the Group's total turnover. The CNI Café with its delightful aromaand refreshing taste has been awarded the "Top 10-Coffee Fest Seattle Bestof Show 1998" and "American Taste Award of Excellence".
EARNINGS SUMMARY (RMm) - CNI
Dec-2005F
* Based on the enlarged outstanding shares of 600.0m# For the 6-month period ended 31st December 2003 TA Securities Holdings Berhad (14948-M)
(Formerly known as Botly Securities Sdn Bhd) Menara TA One, 22 Jalan P Ramlee, 50250 Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia Tel : 603 - 2072 1277. Fax : 603 - 2032 5048 REVENUE BREAKDOWN BY PRODUCTS (2004)
Predominantly Local Sales
For FY04, approximately 88.7% of CNI's total turnover was derived from the
local market. The remaining 11.3% was generated from contract
manufacturing sales to Singapore, Brunei, USA, Hong Kong, Indonesia,
Thailand and India as well as the Group's multilevel marketing operations via
its distribution centres in Singapore and Brunei.
Venturing into Bumiputra Community with Majority Bumiputra
Distributors
In tandem with the Group's intention to further penetrate into the Bumiputra
community, the Group's distributor base has increased from 78,818 distributors
in FY00 to 315,863 in FY04, consisting majority Bumiputra distributors. We
believe the Group is targeting the right community to further strengthen its
local market share, given the fast-growing Bumiputra population.
CNI'S DISTRIBUTOR BASE
DISTRIBUTORS BREAKDOWN BY RACES IN 2004
Comprehensive Reward System Plan
CNI's reward system plan comprises monetary and non-monetary rewards.
Under the monetary reward system, it provides the distributors two stream
of income, namely
(a) retail sales, which is an immediate monetary reward that enable all
distributors to mark-up 20%-30% on retail sales of the Group's products;and (b) bonus system, which is based on accumulation of points, called promotion
and bonus value. The promotion and bonus values are accumulated eachmonth based on the sales made by each distributor and its downliners,which will then be converted into different status and levels of monetaryvalue.
As for the non-monetary rewards, the Group is offering motivation programsuch as children education incentives, promotion certificates, recognitionpins for each promotion, provides leadership travel seminars either locally orabroad, and offers overseas trips to the qualified distributors.
Production Capacity Expansion
Due to the encouraging demand for its beverage products, CNI has undertaken
a RM6.3 million expansion plan in January 2005 whereby the Group has
purchased new machinery for the enlarged production facility. The increase
in F&B's annual production capacity is shown below. The number for F&B
excluding the installation of high-speed new machinery. After the installation,
F&B's capacity is expected to increase by 90%.
UPGRADED ANNUAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AND OUTPUT
Types of Products
Production Output
Upgraded %
Increase in
Capacity
Capacity
Total Capacity
* Excluding the installation of high-speed new machinery. After the installation F&B's capacity isexpected to increase by 90%.
Source: Company Future Growth…
(a) New products
In order to sustain its business growth, CNI plans to introduce another 13new products within the next two years, which consists of 2 new food andbeverage products, 5 nutritional and health products, 2 personal careproducts, 3 household products, and 1 water treatment.
(b) Introducing E-Services
The Group intends to introduce 'on-line purchasing' and 'on-line distributorregistration' to further enhance its distributors' productivity by reducingadministrative chores.
(c) Real-time information flows system
The Group also plans to implement 'Enterprise Resource Planning system'("ERP") worth RM4.3 million by January 2006 in order to enhance theinformation flows of inter-company transactions and improvingmanufacturing efficiencies.
(d) Acquisition of land and construction of warehouse
CNI intends to acquire a piece of land for construction of a warehouse byend of 2006, overcoming its insufficient warehouse storage space to caterfor CNI's needs. The investment cost will be generated internally and/orby bank borrowings.
Looks Like a Treasure for Dividend Play
CNI is budgeting to pay out at least 50% of its FY05 net profit as dividend.
Referring to the management's profit forecasts of RM48.35 million, we expects
a net dividend per share of 4.03 sen (Gross: 5.6 sen) for FY05. At IPO Price
of RM0.90, this will translate into a net dividend yield of 4.48% (Gross: 6.22%).
We believe the company is capable of franking out a higher dividend payout
than 50% for FY05 premised on its robust balance sheet and cash flows, as
well as its historical dividend payout track record.
Fair Value at RM1.04
We believe DDM is the most appropriate method to value CNI, given the
Group's sustainable high dividend yield. For valuation purposes, we have
made the following assumptions:
Dividend growth rate at 8% initially for the next 3 years Risk free rate to 10-year Malaysian Government Securities at 4.5339% Based on the assumptions above, we derived at a fair value of RM1.04.
At RM1.04, we arrive at a PER of 12.9x. The fair value gives a 15.6% potentialupside over the IPO price of RM0.90. However, CNI's PER of 12.9x representsa 24% premium to the industry average of 10.41x.
The information in this report has been obtained fromsources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy orcompleteness is not guaranteed and opinions are subjectto change without notice. This report is for informationonly and not to be construed as a solicitation forcontracts. We accept no liability for any direct or indirectloss arising from the use of this document. We, ourassociates, directors, employees may have an interestin the securities and/or companies mentioned herein.
for TA SECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD
(Formerly known as Botly Securities Sdn Bhd) Yaw Chun Soon, Executive Director - Operations

Source: http://eas.taonline.com.my/research/dco/ipo_5104_050729.PDF